Rugby is barreling along at 100 miles an hour on and off the field. With so much critical stuff going on it can sometimes pass you by and the next 60 days are massive — Rugby World Cup bids for 2015 and 2019, the Sanzar expansion of Super Rugby and the Tri-Nations to Four Nations and a slew of other Northern Hemisphere games are plunked down in a kind of a bizarre game of rugby Monopoly, all to determine what you and I and millions like us are going to watch, week in and week out, over the next 5 years.
From mid-May to mid-July all this will be determined and the monies involved are just staggering if one adds them all together. A monster collective value of more than R10 billion. How is that for a game played for 80 minutes with an oval ball?
So I thought a little condensed version of all this would help — so you can play this game of rugby trivia, so that when you are next at your club, with mates, at home or at the local watering hole, you can share these rugby dynamics.
This will make you, the rugby aficionado, as smart or even smarter than the rugby secretariat attending all these meetings, upon meetings, upon meetings, here, there and everywhere — and here, right here, we have nailed it.
1. Northern Hemisphere:
a. 2015 Rugby World Cup bid — England — submission May 13.
b. British & Irish Cup: A brand new 24-team British & Irish Cup will take place in 2010. Twelve teams from the English Championship, six from the Welsh Principality Premiership, Irish provinces Munster, Leinster and Ulster and three Scottish sides will compete for the inaugural trophy. The teams will be divided into four pools of six, playing over five weekends during the Autumn International and RBS 6 Nations windows, with semi-finals and finals on April 24 and May 15 respectively. This effectively rules out any possibility that SA Rugby had of playing with the Northern Hemisphere as an alternative to the Sanzar expansion plans for the Super 14 from 2011 to 2015. That door is now firmly slammed shut on any options in the Northern Hemisphere for the next 6 years.
c. The major Celtic rugby tournament, the Magners League, which consists of four Irish provinces (Leinster, Munster, Connacht and Ulster), four Welsh regions (Cardiff Blues, Newport Gwent Dragons, Ospreys and Scarlets) and two Scottish sides (Glasgow and Edinburgh) has a season that starts in September and ends at the end of May. The Magners League season, therefore, starts when the Currie Cup is reaching its finals and ends around about the same time as the present Super 14 season when the South African replacement of Super Rugby finishes. The Magners League announced that it was considering expanding to include two Italian sides. The Magners League is used by Ireland to confirm their two teams to take part in the lucrative Heineken Cup tournament.
2. Southern Hemisphere:
a. 2015 Rugby World Cup bid — South Africa — submission May 13. Other bidders are Japan Rugby Union with games to be played in Singapore and Hong Kong.
b. Sanzar: 2006 to 2010 $323 million deal — SA Rugby benefited by 40% with R1.4 billion — this would likely increase to R1.5 billion for the next 5 years and this is in jeopardy. Deadline on this is June 31 2009.
c. ARU and NZRU have an Anzac tournament structure and broadcast package in place for a Pacific Rim tournament to replace Super Rugby from 2011 to 2015
d. Naturally, key in all of this, is the broadcast funding for rights fees from News Corp (Australian), the lifeblood of the Sanzar unions and with SA Rugby having no substitute or replacement sponsor of the scale of R1.4 billion, post 2010, they are almost all out of options, unless they promote a conflict-free solution to Sanzar on May 14 and run with either a 6-team apiece for a Sanzar Super 18, or with another variant of a Super 15 with a promotion and relegation system to keep the competition hot and fired up for the paying broadcasters and spectators.
e. If the more popular option of the Super 15 is selected, with relegation and promotion, as it normally happens in international competitions, this should lead to three Tri-Game playoffs in each of the 3 Sanzar countries, right after the Super 15, or even during the Super 15, as the last-placed teams will be out of contention and then a smaller lower level competition, a Super Rugby lite if you will, during the Super 15, for those 3 Sanzar franchises outside of the Super 15.
f. This would mean that each of the Sanzar countries would have 5+1 franchises, with the extra, plus one, or sixth franchise, which would likely include an extra franchise from Australia out of the Gold Coast (as Melbourne is the favoured 5th Australian franchise) one from New Zealand from either Northland or Hawkes Bay and the ever present Eastern Cape franchise, now known as the Southern Kings.
g. Playing an expanded Super Rugby tournament in “d” or “e” above, from February to May enables the Super 15, with a Super 7 and a Tri-Game Series to be played in each of the Sanzar countries and delivers a conflict-free solution and secures a $500 million plus broadcast deal for all 3.
h. Argentina: IRB want Argentina included in a 4-Nations from 2012 and a lower level Super 7 Rugby series with the above franchises plus Argentina, Pacific Islands and Organisation of Africa Rugby unites over 12 rugby unions in the Southern Hemisphere and offers additional rugby content for broadcasters to sell to advertisers.
i. The Currie Cup is safe and secure with this tournament fixture list and the 14 SA Unions can play on uninterrupted.
As I said, the next 60 days have been brewing for years and finally we get to see how our rugby future will be determined.
For example a brilliant rugby player at 16 years today could be the future Springbok, All Black or Wallaby in just 4 to 5 years, so this is serious, really life-altering stuff.
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13 Responses to “A snapshot of the rugby landscape over the next 5 years”
Great snapshot. What of the Japanese/Tokyo influence and why does anyone not make overtures to the USA?
They are afterall the title holders of rugby at the Olympics!
June - Japan offers little appeal right now other than attracting corporate sponsors into the game to back Japanese teams and I assume that is where the ARU & NZRU are wanting to seek out new financial pastures.
Similarly the USA, but there are no structures in place in the USA and there are various tiers of competition tournaments that are miles apart from each other with opposing professional/amateur views clashing. Money can sort that out in a new tournament infused with overseas elite players from the SH & NH top teams.
Money for the Southern Hemisphere rugby comes from broadcasters. Not free to air broadcasters, but pay channels and they want eyeballs for their advertisers and spectators for their advertisers in key markets.
The existing broadcasters of Newscorp and SuperSport have invested $500m plus in the Super Rugby series over the years and they would be “nuts” to abandon this residual investment that they and their advertisers have made and simply look at a “new” TV rugby product. The leap is too great.
Expect the broadcasters to have some serious input here behind the scenes. They of all the rugby administrators and sponsors understand 5 year cycles and meticulous programming to target audiences.
In fact, these folk are the backbone of the game of rugby and afterall, “he who has the gold, rules”.
Interesting Tony. I think the country with most to gain is Australia which doesn’t or couldn’t even get a provincial tournament off the ground. To be honest this year I have seen less and less interest in the Super 14 and the reason is that we simply don’t have the quality of top stars that we should. That seems to be reflected by the low spectator turnout to most games bar perhaps a couple of Bulls and Sharks games and to top it all the numbers at the games in Aussie and New Zealand seem to reflect that as well. ( Lets face it the Northern Hemisphere clubs have caused this by snapping up some of the best talent of the Southern Hemisphere for their own club championships and in that vein why don’t we?) Maybe we’ve (Aussie, NZ and SA S14 Franchises)all become too friendly and just maybe we need to up the anti. The new rules also seem to have not worked and I think it is time to put that to pasture once and for all. Lets get Argentinia and the other up and coming Unions involved, Argentinia has a massive amount of small clubs and I am sure they could field four or five sides. That would also keep their best players in Argentinia as they could earn good money. They are after all the semi finalists from the last world cup and I think this would be good for SA Rugby and indeed world Rugby. The Tri nations would also mean something again and perhaps the cards will fall exactly as they are supposed to. But we are the world champions and our entire strategy should be about keeping it that way. Of course none of what I said will happen as it will be dictated to by money, as you have said.
I like the idea of getting Canada and USA involved to, so that would be teams from Canada, USA, SA and Argentinia. Perhaps a broadcaster from North America would be interested in that?
GEEJAY - I know a G-J - wondered whether you are the same. Originally from Upington? Hmmm. Anyhow great comments.
The only way to make the Super Rugby a HOT competition is reward performance and penalise mediocrity.
That is - drop the non performing team or head into playoffs with a Tri-Game series that will attract more spectators than a Final only because the teams cahone’s are on the line.
That means the SANZAR chaps must on Thursday each grow a pair and get this Relegation & Promotion accepted and in the system.
That makes the broadcasters happy as this then becomes all about performance performance performance and suddenly you have to fight for your place to be in Super Rugby.
Then Gee Jay you have your money and more of it. It spawns additional rugby competitions. Three Country playoffs in each of the SANZAR members and then a compettion for those that do not make the Super Rugby cut and this is where a lot of goodwill and PR can be done with Argentina, Northern Hemisphere teams, Africa, Pacific Islands and perhaps even Japan, if they can deal with the travel.
The ‘Travel Argument’ - Ooh it is too far and we are away from home for 4 weeks sometimes 6 weeks, is so lame. Consider what the top elite sportsmen have to do week in and week out for golf, F-1 and tennis. These guys criss cross the world in a week, play 4 days and then head for the other side of the planet, 50 weeks of the year.
Do we hear Roger Federer, Nadal, Tiger Woods, Lewis Hamilton or Jenson Button complain that they are away from Mommy for too long?
I was in the USA last year and saw 3 broadcasters about this very same formula. The trick would be to get the SANZAR broadcasters involved in this, as they know the game, cover it brilliantly and can take their TV product (and investment in it) and shop/syndicate it in the States, in key rugby markets (New York, Miami, Chicago, Boston, Los Angeles, Houston, Denver, San Diego) for additional rights and residual fees.
Newscorp is Headquartered on the Avenue of the Americas and 53rd Street in New York and all the top TV guns are Australian.
Thanks Tony appreciate the indepth insight. Like what you are saying and it gives a new lease of life and backing into making Rugby a truly internationally competitive sport. Who knows perhaps I will live to see a Kenyan XV beat the all Blacks.
This morning in Dublin, South Africa, England, Japan and Italy will bid for either the 2015 or 2019 Rugby World Cups. This decision will be declared on the 28th July and 2015 will go to ____________ and 2019 will go to _____________.
Tomorrow, also in Dublin, is a SANZAR meeting and in spite of the brouhaha that has gone on, with all sorts of posturing with ghost competitions and kite flying of new age style tournaments, there has been a multi billion investment in Super Rugby over the years and the broadcasters will surely not abandon that. There is a residual equity here that is enormous. I would expect that there will be some revisions of Super Rugby and a tweaking of the start and finish of the tournament by some 2 weeks or so, added with the spice of some relegation and promotion and you have a great recipe for success.
Kenya will continue to excel at “Sevens” and move up the ladder of the IRB 15-man log. Let’s see them in 2011, 2015 & 2019.
Super 15 it is then from 2011-2015
NZRU boss Steve Tew has moved to ensure the sport’s stakeholders, including the rugby public, that the agreement over the future shape of Super Rugby was the best long-term option for New Zealand rugby.
Sanzar top-brass agreed overnight on a shared vision for the future of Super Rugby, with an expanded Super 15 set to be created for the 2011 season.
So at the end of the day money dictated? More things change the more they stay the same. Will we see a new franchise headed by you competing in 2011. Wake the talent up in the Eastern Cape?
GEEJAY - I have seen this movie being played out, more times than you have seen the Sound of Music and we are witnessing another violation here right before our eyes.
The new franchise is the Southern Kings and then what? Is it in name only?
Here are the problems:
1.They have but one match scheduled for the 16th June
2. There is no tournament or fixtures planned to include the Southern Kings in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 & 2015.
3. As a consequence no sponsor can or will buy in for philanthropic reasons to give money to the Southern Kings without a confirmed set of fixtures.
4. The Super 15 will exclude the Southern Kings and it will go to Melbourne - GUARANTEED - that gives each the SANZAR nations 5 teams a piece.
5. Unless South Africa implement a relegation & promotion series now (after the 2009 Super 14), in which the last placed team plays a 3 game Play-off to determine who plays in 2010, why launch a new franchise.
6. SA Rugby have been unable to deliver a coherent tournament fixture or plan for Super Rugby, be it Super 15, with Promotion Relegation & another tournament outside of the Super 15, for the Southern Kings, except establish a so-called committee to establish structures for the new franchise - this just puts the franchise into a coma, induced by SA Rugby.
GEEJAY - the point is here if SA Rugby can whip together a R3bn bid document for either the 2015 or 2019 Rugby World Cup and submit this 2 days ago to the IRB in Dublin, which would be a comprehensive and thorough study, why on God’s Green Earth, can they not do the same and establish a tournament structure for all the 6 South African franchises in a week?
These Super Rugby tournament fixtures and a 5 year plan can be nailed inside 3 days.
You answer that question please!
Nothing would give me greater pleasure than to assemble a powerhouse team based in the Eastern Cape from 2009 onwards and demonstrate the playing ability of the region. You watch these players every week and still you do not realise how many come from the Eastern Cape and are playing for other provinces.
Here they are:
BULLS
Name Province Birthdate Place of Birth Position Height Weight
Rayno Gerber 28/1/1981 Port Elizabeth Prop 1.89m 118kg
Zane Kirchner 16/6/1984 George Fullback 1.84m 92kg
Bandise Maku 24/6/1986 King Willm’s Town Prop 1.87m 111kg
Tiger Mangweni 20/6/1980 East London Fullback 1.77m 89kg
Akona Ndungane 20/2/1981 Umtata Wing 1.82m 92kg
Dewald Potgieter 22/2/1987 Port Elizabeth Eighthman 1.94m 108kg
CHEETAHS/GRIQUAS
Name Province Date of Birth Place of birth Position Height Weight
Bjorn Basson 11/2/1987 King Willm’s Town Wing 1.87m 83kg
Kabamba Floors 15/11/1980 Oudtshoorn Flanker 1.75m 89kg
Bevin Fortuin 6/2/1979 George Fullback 1.79m 97kg
Fabian Juries 282/1979 Grahamstown Wing 1.73m 75kg
Jongi Nokwe 30/12/1981 Keiskammahoek Wing 1.83m 84kg
Trompie Nontshinga 24/9/1983 Fort Beaufort Wing 1.82m 90kg
Wayne v Heerden 29/3/1979 Graaff-Reinet Eighthman 1.97m 111kg
LIONS
Name Province Birthdate Place of Birth Position Height Weight
JC Janse van Rensburg 9/1/1986 Prins Albert Prop 1.84m 115kg
Chris Jonck 16/6/1980 Port Elizabeth Scrumhalf 1.76m 89kg
Michael Killian 22/11/1983 Uitenhage Utility back 1.81m 91kg
Jano Vermaak 1/1/1985 Graaff-Reinet Scrumhalf 1.72m 78kg
SHARKS
Name Province Birthdate Place of Birth Position Height Weight
Skipper Badenhorst 1/12/1978 Oudtshoorn Hooker 1.84m 104kg
Nikolai Blignaut 10/1/1985 East London Lock 1.95m 101kg
Keegan Daniel 5/3/1985 East London Flank 1.88m 92kg
Ryan Kankowski 14/10/1985 Port Elizabeth No 8 1.93m 105kg
Rory Kockott 25/6/1986 East London Scrumhalf 1.80m 92kg
Sikholiwe Ndlovu 13/2/1985 na Flank 1.80m 90kg
Odwa Ndungane 20/2/1981 Umtata Wing 1.84m 95kg
Francois Steyn 14/5/1987 Aliwal North Flyhalf/centre 1.91m 100kg
Riaan Swanepoel 14/1/1986 Cradock Centre 1.83m 98kg
Stefan Terblanché 2/7/1975 Mossel Bay Fullback 1.87m 95kg
STORMERS
Name Province Birthdate Place of Birth Position Height Weight
Gcobani Bobo 12/9/1979 King William’s TownCentre 1.80m 95kg
Schalk Burger 13/4/1983 Port Elizabeth Flanker 1.93m 110kg
JJ Engelbrecht 22/2/1989 Port Elizabeth Wing 1.89m 90kg
Wylie Human 26/2/1979 Uitenhage Wing 1.80m 95kg
JC Kritzinger 4/12/1987 Humansdorp Prop 1.84m 112kg
Luke Watson 26/10/1983 Port Elizabeth Flank/NO 8 1.84m 100kg
And from the land down under we hear what we already knew the 15th team goes to Melbourne:
Secret’s out: more Super derbies from 2011 Josh Rakic | May 17, 2009
DESPITE top secrecy since last Thursday’s successful SANZAR meeting - at which South Africa confirmed it would remain in the Super rugby competition - The Sun-Herald can confirm a 15th team will be included in an extended competition from 2011.
Reds rugby boss Peter Lewis last week demanded Australian teams play each other twice in the regular season to boost patronage and revenue with local derbies. A source close to the SANZAR camp confirmed that this would, in fact, be the case.
All 15 teams will play each other once, while the regular season will be extended by three rounds, during which teams will play three other sides from their respective pools for a second time. This means the Waratahs would be likely to have home and away matches with the Reds, Brumbies and Force.
Instead of having six home games one season and the seven the next, it’s believed all teams will have eight home matches a season, creating three extra revenue-making opportunities over two years.
The good news for Wallabies coach Robbie Deans - who last week gave his public support to expansion - is that the 15th team is all but certain to be based in Melbourne.
The length of the Super season was a big talking point at the meeting, Australia making no secret of its intention to extend the season and start it later to compete with the NRL and AFL.
South Africa was opposed to the suggestion, which would affect its prized domestic Currie Cup season, but the two nations and New Zealand were able to agree on a likely four-week extension.
Final details are still to be nutted out but it’s believed the season could be pushed back a week to start on the second last weekend in February.
If the bye rounds remain as expected, this would push the regular season back until the final weekend of May - the same weekend on which this year’s grand final will be played.
Regardless, all three nations have agreed on an overhaul of the finals system, doing away with the four-team structure to make a six-team finals series.
In the model, teams No. 1 and No. 2 would automatically progress to the grand final qualifiers and teams No. 3 and No. 4 would play teams No. 6 and No. 5 respectively. The winners would go on to battle for a grand final berth against the top two teams.
To accommodate the extra two teams, the finals series will be extended by one week, meaning the Super rugby calendar could run until the end of June, or at least into the third week.
Frustrated players save Sanzar
4:00AM Sunday May 17, 2009
By Gregor Paul
Player intervention is understood to have saved the Sanzar alliance.
Frustrated by the inability of administrators to strike a working deal, players from all three Sanzar nations, through their professional associations, are believed to have stepped in.
They quickly agreed on a compromise on how to restructure Super Rugby and presented their vision to administrators.
It’s understood the nations reacted differently but were put under severe pressure by the players’ associations to accept the deal.
Sources have said the alternative transtasman competition being worked up as a fall-back option lacked detail.
They also said it was unlikely to capture the imagination of TV executives or sponsors and that New Zealand and Australia would have been facing a significant drop in income had they gone down that route.
Sanzar executives were at an impasse over the start date of an expanded competition and how to structure games during the June test window.
Details on the new agreement will not be revealed until relevant stakeholders have been briefed but it is widely expected the competition from 2011 will have 15 teams.
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Those teams will be split into three geographic conferences with decisions still to be made about where the 15th team will be based. It is also thought the new competition will start in early March and all conferences will begin simultaneously.
Details of how Super 15 will be structured during the June test window is not known. However, the Springbok players are believed to have agreed to be less involved in the early stages of the Currie Cup.
One of the major sticking blocks in the negotiations has been South Africa’s desire to protect the Currie Cup and not allow the expanded Super 15 to overlap it. They have already sold TV rights for the Currie Cup.
Because the South Africans have compromised over their domestic competition, it is thought the season will run into early August and the number of games played during the June window will be limited.
The players decided they had to get involved as they had no desire to see the alliance split. While travel has been labelled a problem, the players were adamant on retaining the link with South Africa. The new format will cut the time spent away from home as more games will be played in New Zealand.
All three parties have agreed to not make public any details of the new format until they have been presented to their respective boards and agreed. That is expected to be done this week and, assuming sign-off is granted, Sanzar will then present its plans to News Corporation and other broadcasters at the end of June.
An extended Super 15 will further decrease the importance of the provincial championship as the overlap will be greater. If Super 15 runs until early August, followed almost immediately by the Tri Nations, All Black involvement is going to be zero.
Discussions are scheduled to restructure the provincial championship with the chances now high that the number of teams will be cut to build a shorter, tighter competition. It may also be time to revert to the old format of two divisions with promotion and relegation.
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Tony led the change in corporate identity of South African Airways from the airline of the old South Africa to the flag carrier of the new South Africa.
Before that he was a competitive provincial sportsmen in swimming, diving, waterpolo, lifesaving and white water rafting.
Rugby was played at Bishops, NW Cape, Maties, van der Stel, UCT, Hamiltons and False Bay.
Tony singularly authored the blueprint for the establishment of Soccer City Stadium for the PSL which in 2010 hosted the opening and closing ceremonies of the FIFA World Cup and the Finals of the soccer showpiece.
He was past CEO of the Southern & Eastern Cape Super 14 Rugby franchise, the Southern Spears and now CEO of the Super 20 Rugby World Series.
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This site carries more of a behind the scenes view.
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Great snapshot. What of the Japanese/Tokyo influence and why does anyone not make overtures to the USA?
They are afterall the title holders of rugby at the Olympics!
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